What a messy bowl picture. The most likely scenario has Clemson and Notre Dame outside of the ACC bowl allotment and in the New Years Six in some capacity. North Carolina is surging up the rankings, but Florida State sits in a great position with a game versus Florida on the horizon to jump into the top 12 and potentially into a New Years Six game as well.
At the Pool 1 level, there’s essentially a battle for four spots between five teams. Pitt is likely a lock for one of the four bowls, with the Pinstripe Bowl being the most advantageous fit for the Panthers. That leaves Duke, Miami, NC State and Louisville for the remaining three, barring a situation where Notre Dame or Florida State drops back into the ACC’s bowl picture. With Virginia Tech having gone to the Military Bowl a year ago, Shreveport is a likely destination for the Hokies, should they pick up one more win to reach eligibility.
If not, the ACC faces a scenario where only 8 teams will be eligible for post-season play. That becomes slightly less embarrassing when it’s recognized that two of those 8 teams, not including Notre Dame, could be in the New Years Six.
The below projections assume that Clemson and Notre Dame are locks for the New Years Six.
Clemson
Best case scenario: College Football Playoff
How it happens: Beat Wake Forest and South Carolina. Win the ACC Championship Game.
Worst case scenario: Chick-Fil-A Bowl
How it happens: Beat Wake Forest and South Carolina. Lose the ACC Championship Game.
Most likely: College Football Playoff
North Carolina
Best case scenario: Chick-Fil-A Bowl
How it happens: Beat Virginia Tech and NC State. Win the ACC Championship Game.
Worst case scenario: Sun Bowl
How it happens: Lose two of the last two/three games, Florida State loses to Florida.
Most likely: Russell Athletic Bowl
Florida State
Best case scenario: Chick-Fil-A Bowl
How it happens: Beat Chattanooga and Florida, Clemson wins the ACC.
Worst case scenario: TaxSlayer Bowl
How it happens: Lose to Florida, 11-1 North Carolina loses to Clemson.
Most likely: Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Duke
Best case scenario: Belk Bowl
How it happens: Win out. Louisville loses to Pitt or UK. FSU makes the NY6.
Worse case scenario: Military Bowl
How it happens: Louisville wins out, Duke loses out.
Most likely: Belk Bowl
Pitt
Best case scenario: Chick-Fil-A Bowl
How it happens: Beat Clemson in the ACC Championship
Worst case scenario: Pinstripe Bowl
How it happens: UNC wins the Coastal
Most likely: Pinstripe Bowl
Miami
Best case scenario: TaxSlayer Bowl
How it happens: Beat Georgia Tech or Pitt. Louisville loses to Pitt or UK.
Worst case scenario: Military Bowl
How it happens: Lose out. Louisville wins out.
Most likely: TaxSlayer Bowl
NC State
Best case scenario: Belk Bowl
How it happens: Win out. Louisville beats Pitt or UK. Duke loses out.
Worst case scenario: Independence Bowl
How it happens: Lose out
Most likely: Sun Bowl
Louisville
Best case scenario: Sun Bowl
How it happens: Beat Pitt and Kentucky. Duke loses out.
Worst case scenario: Military Bowl
How it happens: Lose against Pitt or UK. Duke wins out.
Most likely: Military Bowl
Virginia Tech
Best case scenario: Independence Bowl
How it happens: Win vs. UNC or Virginia
Worst case scenario: Not eligible
How it happens: Lose out
Most likely: Independence Bowl
