We head to week 3 of the college football season. Last week we did much better than Week 1. Let’s see if we can get 2 weeks in a row of solid picks.
Duke -14.5 vs Baylor (Over/Under 58.5)
- – No trend here just a crazy stat and shows how far Duke football has come
This week marks 10th time in last 5 yrs Duke is favored by at least a TD vs FBS school.
From 1998-2007, Duke was only favored 10x overall
— Josh Goodson (@joshwgoodson) September 12, 2017
- – Duke added to their incredible record in Non-Conference games last week. They are now 16-4-1 ATS in last 21 Non-Conference games.
- – When Duke has been greater than a TD favorite versus a P5 opponent under David Cutcliffe, Duke is 5-1 ATS
Pick: This pick will look familiar. Good teams win. Great teams cover. We expect Duke to continue to be great as they cover and get the outright win. Also we lean over.
Wake Forest -12.5 vs Utah State (Over/under 48.5)
- – Wake Forest is 4-7 ATS in last 5 years as a home favorite.
- – Wake Forest is 9-9 ATS in last 5 years vs non-conference teams
- – 64% of home games in last 5 years have gone UNDER.
Pick: This line was closer to 14 but has come down. Because of it moving down lean Wake and UNDER.
UNC -10 @ ODU (Over/Under 55)
- – Under Fedora, UNC has covered 56.5% of time it’s a favorite.
- – Under Fedora, UNC is 10-4 ATS in non-conference games where UNC is at least a 7 pt favorite
- – In the Fedora era, 64% of UNC road games have gone under
Pick: We like UNC to cover and will go against the trend and take the over.
NCSU -36.5 vs Furman (Over/Under 58.5)
- – NCSU is 3-2 ATS vs FCS schools under Dave Doeren
- – The game has gone UNDER 4 of 5 times playing FCS schools
Pick: That’s a big number and FSU game on tap next week. Like Furman to cover the number and lean UNDER
ECU +23 @ Virginia Tech (Over/Under 60)
- – ECU 4-0 ATS in last 4 home games vs ACC schools
- – In last 5 years, games against P5 schools, the game has gone under 7 of 11 times
- Pick: ECU has to play well-ish at least one time right. Right? We will take the Pirates and UNDER.