Our college basketball expert and NBA guru take a look at the numerous decisions to be made out of the UNC and Duke camps this off-season. Disclaimer: this is ONLY considering basketball reasons because we all know that your favorite players love the college experience and your rival coach is holding his players back. Also, yes, if we say a player should go pro it’s because we want your team to suck next year.
UNC Tar heels
Theo Pinson
Decision: Undecided
If he stays in college (Ben):
I don’t necessarily know what Pinson’s long-term ceiling is, so he’s not a guy who would really help or hurt his draft stock coming back to North Carolina for his senior year. If he comes back, he’ll pretty much be the same player he was this year … a leader, an energy guy, and a defensive specialist who has the capability of making the big play when his team needs it. He’s absolutely a “he is what he is” guy, which is why he’s still in college despite being ranked ahead of guys in his class like D’Angelo Russell and Devin Booker.
If he goes pro (Brian):
When healthy, Pinson made tremendous strides as a junior. On the defensive end, Pinson flashed the kind of game that would impress just about anyone. He’s a long, physical defender — just ask De’Aaron Fox, who will carve up NBA defenders in a matter of months.
The comparison game between college and NBA players is a bit trite, but I thought Pinson had an Andre Iguodala-like impact for UNC this season. He defended multiple positions, and emerged as a canny playmaker and passer. Pinson led UNC in assist rate (22.7 percent). However, he also has a jumper that registers as shaky at best; there’s a reason why his efficiency numbers are much better on possession where he’s used as passer. This in a major limiting factor.
What should he do?
Ben: Without a championship this answer would be different, but he should bounce.
Brian: I’m normally of the mind that guys should go get paid, and Pinson may very well go do that. However, I think he should roll back to Chapel Hill, improve that jumper, and take advantage of the extra possessions available after Jackson departs for richer waters.
Justin Jackson
Decision: Undecided
If he stays in college (Ben):
If he comes back, he’ll do so as the pre-season player of the year in college basketball. What I really liked about Jackson this year was that he developed a bit of a mean streak towards the end of the season, and it would be fun to see that for a full year. He made a big leap between last year and this one, and there’s really not much room to get better, but he certainly could become more consistent. He would absolutely be a throwback to when a senior star would go out and dominate college basketball. But … there is a risk that we’d get inconsistent JJax and that would not be a good thing for his rookie contract.
If he goes pro (Brian):
This dude is ready for the NBA. In fact, I think of the 2017 draft class, which is being hailed as an all-time great, Jackson is perhaps the most prepared player for the league. JJ spent the last three years refining his game in a Tobacco Road-based laboratory — there are few better places to hone your craft. I wrote about this back in March, but Jackson became one of the most lethal catch-and-shoot bombers this side of the Mississippi.
He hunts shots, especially in transition, and his development as a pick-and-roll player is a real boon for his pro prospects. His improvement as a shooter off of screens and dribble handoffs is perfect; this is the type of action he’ll be involved in on the next level, too.
What should he do?
Ben: There’s no doubt he should leave.
Brian: Like Swain said, it’s time to go become a millionaire. Of note: rookie scale contracts are set to increase drastically in 2017, too.
Tony Bradley
Decision: Undecided
If he stays in college (Ben):
It’s hard to say what we’d get from Tony Bradley if he came back for his sophomore season because we didn’t see him all that much this year. There’s no doubt that he has the physical makeup of a dominant post-player, especially for defense and rebounding. I have a lot of questions about his offensive game outside of 2nd chance points. He could really shine getting an extra 10 minutes a game that he’d get without Meeks and Hicks around, or he could be completely exposed.
If he goes pro (Brian):
I’m bullish on Bradley’s NBA outlook. His shooting range, as of right now, doesn’t extend beyond his wingspan, but that’s okay. It’s important for guys entering the league to have at least one plus-skill. One thing the player can hang his hat on. For Bradley, that’s rebounding. He didn’t play all of that much this season, but when he did, Bradley polished the glass with Windex. According to KenPom, Bradley register an offensive rebounding rate of 18.2 percent — which is better than that of Kennedy Meeks.
Bradley’s wingspan makes him appear like Brandan Wright’s younger brother — the last one-and-done player to attend UNC. In the NBA, Bradley is a center — period. He can rebound, block shots (block rate of 4.5 percent) and his lack of shooting won’t matter when he’s a rim-running menace. That said, he probably needs to bulk up before that.
What should he do?
Ben: With big men, unanswered questions are usually best left unanswered when it comes to NBA draft position. You’re either going to be a Karl Anthony-Towns or you’re going to be a Skal Labissiere, and you’d probably rather be drawing a paycheck when we find out. I’d go.
Brian: I’m surprised Bradley didn’t appear on more draft boards this season, to be honest. I’d love him as a late-first round pick. Go get paid. However, I think he’ll be back in Chapel Hill next season. An All-ACC season could vault him into the 2018 lottery.
Joel Berry
Decision: Undecided
If he stays in college (Ben):
For two years, Berry has been arguably UNC’s best player and I wouldn’t see it any differently in college again next year. He can defend, run the show on the break, and can shoot lights out, and none of it really fluctuates from game to game. He’s the perfect college point guard because he’s lightning fast and can dominate at the college level, but it’s difficult to see him coming close to doing the same in the NBA. If Jackson goes, Berry will get pre-season player of the year buzz and would automatically be one of the top two or three players in the ACC.
If he goes pro (Brian):
Berry is an outstanding college player, and one of the best guards to come through the ACC in the last few years. His shooting will give an edge over some other fringe NBA/backup point guard types. Berry can run a pick-and-roll, too, which is big. Per Synergy, Berry’s teammates shot 43 percent of his passes in pick-and-roll action. That — plus his shooting — has to be his meal ticket. I don’t think he has the jets or handles to be a breakdown point guard in the league.
What should he do?
Ben: With Berry, there’s not much risk/reward going on. He’ll make an NBA roster and bounce back and forth between the NBA and the D-League whether he goes this year or next year. His stock isn’t going to drop, so why not come back?
Brian:
Berry has (hopefully) proven to just about everyone how damn good he is. Regardless, he’s not a first round pick, and as we all know, the dude played with two flat tires for the stretch run this season. Berry’s ankles are cooked as we enter a valuable time for players to show their shit to NBA personnel guys. That could play a role, too. I think he comes back, runs the ACC for another 12 months, and then starts his Seven Teams In Ten Years As A Backup Point Guard career in 2018.
Duke blue devils
Jayson Tatum
Decision: NBA
If he’d stayed in college (Ben):
Tatum’s growth over the second half of the year was ridiculous and he would have hands down been one of the best players in the country from wire to wire next year. There are a couple of things he could have improved on, most notably defense and speed of thought, but he might be the most natural basketball player I’ve seen through Duke’s run of one-and-done players. He would have spent the entire year at the 4 next year, which was his best position in college. Having said all of that, this section is honestly ridiculous because there was never any doubt he would have, and should have entered the draft.
In the NBA (Brian):
I’ve spent the last two months stumping non-stop for this dude’s NBA outlook. I think he’s a stud — physically and mentally. As the season went along, the game slowed down for Tatum; he started to things before they developed. He threw some passes up in Brooklyn at the ACC Tournament that were just spectacular. Like, I’m talking about dimes that no one in attendance or on the floor knew he was tossing. He stunned Matt Jones with a no-look pass. Jones didn’t even have a clue that he was open. It was amazing.
Tatum is also an insanely good post-up player. In fact, the rookie shot 64 percent and scored 1.3 points per possession on post-ups this season, which ranks No. 9 in the nation. This is an area of his game that will be even more useful in the NBA — getting buckets and drawing fouls. Once teams have to said extra attention, Tatum will flash those passing skills in split action sets, and hit cutters with ease.
There are some concerns over his ability to finish at the rim, but his efficiency numbers as a cutter and driver improved late in the season. Tatum’s release is a little low, but my word, is that jumper silky smoother. Give him space, and he will rain three-pointers. I think this guy will be a starting small forward in the NBA for the next decade-plus, and has the ability to be an All-Star on the next level.
What should he have done?
Ben: Obviously, he did the right thing.
Brian: He’s a lock to be a top-four pick; this is a no-brainer.
Harry Giles
Decision: NBA
If he’d stayed in college (Ben):
We never got to see THE Harry Giles in college because of his unfortunate string of injuries. There are two ways of looking at his 2017-18 season at Duke. One, there’s the Harry Giles who shows off his ability to score from the rim all the way out to the three point line while grabbing 12 rebounds and a game and blocking 3 or 4 shots each time out. Or there’s the Harry Giles who never quite gets his legs back and ends up being a rim protector/lob dunk energy guy. Both would help Duke considerably. Only one would help Giles.
In the NBA (Brian):
Giles, like Bradley, essentially has to play center in the NBA. He simply doesn’t have the jumper to be a stretch-four guy. This is both good and bad. Giles had moments of dominance around the hoop on both ends. In a small sample, he posted great numbers as a screen-roll guy, and up in Brooklyn he piled up several vicious blocks. The concern, however, is that he’s only 220 pounds and has two surgically-repaired knees. Yikes.
Let’s just hope his body stops failing Giles; I want to see this dude reach his full potential.
What should he have done?
Ben: Giles is the tech startup that could be the next Facebook or the next Friendster. An NBA team will absolutely invest to find out. Good call on going pro.
Brian: He absolutely made the right choice, which I wrote about two weeks back. The money is too good (remember: the rookie scale is set to jump), and the risk is too high. Whichever team drafts him will be patient in bring him along. I’m hopeful.
Luke Kennard
Decision: NBA
If he’d stayed in college (Ben):
Kennard made an incredible jump between his freshman and sophomore year and I’m still not sure if he ever fully grasped how good he was on offense. He could have come back and been the clear number one option for Duke since none of the incoming freshman are as advanced as Jayson Tatum, and he’s the kind of guy who could have put up record numbers.
In the NBA (Brian):
After decades as an oddity, the NBA now embraces the three-point arc. Records for attempts and makes are shattered every year. The Houston Rockets launch 40 threes per game; Steph Curry is a god with his own shoe deal. This is the power of three, and it’s why Kennard will be so valuable.
Kennard drained 46.8 percent of his three-balls in conference play, but he was more than just that. The Lefty took 281 jump shots this season — and connected on 44.3 percent of those attempts. This was the third-best mark in the ACC. He can hit from anywhere on the floor, and his midrange game off dribble handoffs is deadly — an action every NBA team loves to run. He never stops moving without the ball, and in a slash-and-kick league, Kennard has the ability to be a real player.
What should he have done?
Ben: It was a definite risk/reward situation for Kennard, with the risk being WAY greater than the reward. This is definitely Kennard’s peak draft stock.
Brian: The 2017 draft is loaded, but flattens out a little outside of the top dozen guys. His stock will never be higher, and he can look over at Grayson Allen and see what happens when you stay too long. A good team will likely draft him; this was the right call.
Marques Bolden
Decision: Duke
Since he’s staying in college (Ben):
There are two things I know about Marques Bolden … he was practicing with the starters on the day before Duke’s first game before his injury, and he never got remotely close to starting again while K was around. Was it health? Was it effort? Was it attitude? I’m not really sure. I think you can infer that Bolden came to Duke with the expectation of playing out the year and being a lottery pick, and never really adjusted to how difficult both of those things are. He’s a big mystery, but there aren’t a lot of guys in college who have the size and athleticism that Bolden has.
In the NBA (Brian):
There just really isn’t enough game action from Bolden to make any sort of judgement of his abilities. He looked slow and plodding, which doesn’t play great in the go-go NBA, but from the outside it’s impossible to know how much of that was injury-related. Maybe all of it was? Regardless, all the preseason hype from last fall has to make you think there’s serious talent with this dude. We’ll have to wait and see, though.
What should he have done?
Ben: Bolden is the opposite of Tony Bradley because we saw red flags instead of unanswered questions. Getting healthy and being at Duke in a featured role for a year is going to do him some huge favors with his NBA chances, IF he plays well. But if he doesn’t, he’s in the same situation he was in last year. There wasn’t any risk in coming back.
Brian: I think he made the right call in coming back, honestly. A transfer would’ve delayed his pro career another year, and if he jumped now, he’s way behind other prospects. He’d have to get into shape before doing anything else, which isn’t ideal. Bolden was dealt a crummy hand; this was his best option. If he comes back and dominates, boom, he’s a first round pick in a weaker draft, which means guaranteed millions of dollars.
Grayson Allen
Decision: Undecided
Grayson Allen has since announced that he will return to Duke for his senior year
If he stays in college (Ben):
This would go one of two ways … more of the same from this year where Allen has to deal with the weight of being hated by everyone and either tries to do too much or tries to tone it down, or people get fatigued by the Allen hate and he settles into a leadership role and gets to play his game at his pace and finds success. It would essentially be a chance to show if Sophomore Allen or Junior Allen was the real Grayson Allen.
If he goes pro (Brian):
Allen could really stand to get out of the college basketball microscope, and the NBA offers exactly that. He’d have a chance to earn awesome money and just fit in as another guy. Unfortunately for him, that option simply can’t come at Duke. As far as things go from a talent perspective, though, Grayson Allen has the goods to be an NBA player. There’s a reason he was viewed as a top 20 prospect 10 months ago.
He isn’t that big, but Allen can fly, shoot threes and is developing as a passer. His time spent running the offense as a sophomore and junior could serve him well. He’s one of the best spot-up players in America, and the NBA loves guys he can jump and shoot. I don’t think he’s a starter, but Allen could evolve into a valuable bench scorer.
What should he do?
Ben: I said last year he should get the hell away from college basketball for his own good, completely ignoring if an NBA team would take him or not. I still think he’s in the same situation this year where a change of scenery would do him well. I truly think he comes back for one more year, but I would go pro and just ball out wherever I ended up, whether it’s Europe or the D-League or an NBA bench.
Brian: He should’ve left for the NBA a year ago. I’m sure that cognitive dissonance is more than enough to make him jump in 2017. Although it would be interesting if he returned to Durham; Duke fans would double-down on their support of him, while the larger college hoops landscape would grow more angsty toward Grayson. The juxtaposition would be fascinating.
