Brack8ology: Small Conference Tourneys Be Stealing Bids!

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We are one week away from Selection Sunday and the automatic bids are beginning to fall into place. Let’s take a quick look at the teams that have already clinched a spot.

Atlantic Sun: Lipscomb
Big South: Radford
Big Ten: Michigan
Missouri Valley: Loyola-Chicago
Ohio Valley: Murray State

Now is the point in the season where bubble teams will start to pay closer attention conference tournaments.

The Conference USA tournament (March 7-10) is an interesting one to watch as Middle Tennessee is a favorite, but even with a loss, could take an at large bid.

Another tourney to watch is the Mountain West tourney (March 7-10).  Nevada is an at-large capable team if they are unable to secure a tournament championship.

In the West Coast Conference, Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s are in today’s bracket meaning a victory by another WCC team could shrink the bubble.

Any of the other multi-bid conferences can also cause problems for bubble teams if a team not expected to make the tourney steals a bid by winning a conference title.

Let’s look at the latest brack8ology.

Final Four: East vs West & Midwest vs South

ALL CAPS/conference indicates an automatic bid

SOUTH

(1) VIRGINIA/ACC vs. (16) LIPSCOMB/Atlantic Sun

(8) Oklahoma vs. (9) Missouri

(5) ARIZONA/Pac-12 vs. (12) NEW MEXICO STATE/WAC

(4) Wichita State vs. (13) MURRAY STATE/Ohio Valley

(3) AUBURN/SEC vs. (14) PENN/Ivy League

(6) Miami vs. (11) Providence/Baylor

(7) Texas A&M vs. (10) Louisville

(2) Michigan State vs. (15) BUCKNELL/Patriot League

  • -Virginia remains the top overall seed.
  • -Louisville is in the final few spots to receive a bid.  The Cardinals are in the mid-30’s in KenPom and even higher on NCAAGameSim.com.  A win in the ACC Tournament should be enough if the bubble doesn’t shrink.
  • -Providence and Baylor are among the last 4 teams in the bracket.  Providence opens up with the Big East tourney with Creighton.  That game that could be critical to their tourney chances.  
  • -Baylor has lost 3 of 4 and was the last at-large team in the bracket.

MIDWEST

(1) Xavier vs. (16) COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON/Colonial/PRAIRIE VIEW/SWAC

(8) RHODE ISLAND/Atlantic 10 vs. (9) NC State

(5) Ohio State vs. (12) UL LAFAYETTE/Sun Belt

(4) Clemson vs. (13) SOUTH DAKOTA STATE/Summit

(3) Tennessee vs. (14) BUFFALO/Mid-American

(6) Houston vs. (11) USC

(7) Seton Hall vs. (10) FSU

(2) KANSAS/Big 12 vs. (15) RIDER/MAAC

  • -Xavier claims the 3rd overall seed but slid to the 4th spot to keep the ACC and Big East from having possible semi-final matchups in the Final Four.
  • -NC State is up to a #9 seed although with 2 ACC #1 seeds and multiple #8/#9 ACC teams, it made for some interesting moving parts to avoid a 2nd round match-up of conference teams.
  • -Kansas drops to a #2 seed after a brutal 18 point loss to Oklahoma State.

EAST

(1) VILLANOVA/Big East vs. (16) WAGNER/Northeast/BETHUNE-COOKMAN/MEAC

(8) Virginia Tech vs. (9) Kansas State

(5) GONZAGA/WCC vs. (12) LOYOLA-CHICAGO/Missouri Valley

(4) West Virginia vs. (13) NORTHERN KENTUCKY/Horizon

(3) MICHIGAN/Big Ten vs. (14) MONTANA/Big Sky

(6) Florida vs. (11) Texas/UCLA

(7) NEVADA/Mountain West vs. (10) Butler

(2) UNC vs. (15) SFA/Southland

  • -Villanova is the 2nd overall seed.
  • -Texas is one of the last 4 seeds thanks in large part to a win over West Virginia on Saturday.  
  • -The Bruins picked up a big win over USC to keep their hopes alive a bit longer.
  • -UNC’s 2 loss week wasn’t enough to drop them off the 2 line, even though the Heels finished as the 6th seed in the ACC tournament.

WEST

(1) Duke vs. (16) RADFORD/Big South

(8) Creighton vs. (9) Saint Mary’s

(5) Kentucky vs. (12) MIDDLE TENNESSEE/Conference USA

(4) Texas Tech vs. (13) VERMONT/America East

(3) CINCINNATI/AAC vs. (14) UNC GREENSBORO/Southern

(6) TCU vs. (11) St. Bonaventure

(7) Arkansas vs. (10) Arizona State

(2) Purdue vs. (15) UC SANTA BARBARA/Big West

  • -Duke’s win over UNC was enough to allow them to hop over Kansas to be the 4th overall #1 seed. Perhaps no other team has been given the benefit of the doubt merely based upon the talent on the roster.
  • -Middle Tennessee was higher seeded than a few other #11 seeds, but for play-in purposes, they were moved to a #12 seed.

Last Four In

Baylor
UCLA
Providence
Texas

First Four Out

Notre Dame
Alabama
Penn State
Maryland

Next Four Out

Syracuse
LSU
Marquette
Oklahoma State

Multiple Bid Conferences

Conference Teams
ACC 9
Big 12 8
SEC 7
Big East 6
Big Ten 4
Pac-12 4
AAC 3
WCC 2
Atlantic 10 2

 

Here’s where the fun begins and where we set the Sports Channel 8 bracketology apart from everyone else.  You can simulate the bracket above using NCAAGameSim.com.  Enjoy!