Brack8ology: Small Conference Tourneys Be Stealing Bids!

We are one week away from Selection Sunday and the automatic bids are beginning to fall into place. Let’s take a quick look at the teams that have already clinched a spot.

Atlantic Sun: Lipscomb
Big South: Radford
Big Ten: Michigan
Missouri Valley: Loyola-Chicago
Ohio Valley: Murray State

Now is the point in the season where bubble teams will start to pay closer attention conference tournaments.

The Conference USA tournament (March 7-10) is an interesting one to watch as Middle Tennessee is a favorite, but even with a loss, could take an at large bid.

Another tourney to watch is the Mountain West tourney (March 7-10).  Nevada is an at-large capable team if they are unable to secure a tournament championship.

In the West Coast Conference, Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s are in today’s bracket meaning a victory by another WCC team could shrink the bubble.

Any of the other multi-bid conferences can also cause problems for bubble teams if a team not expected to make the tourney steals a bid by winning a conference title.

Let’s look at the latest brack8ology.

Final Four: East vs West & Midwest vs South

ALL CAPS/conference indicates an automatic bid

SOUTH

(1) VIRGINIA/ACC vs. (16) LIPSCOMB/Atlantic Sun

(8) Oklahoma vs. (9) Missouri

(5) ARIZONA/Pac-12 vs. (12) NEW MEXICO STATE/WAC

(4) Wichita State vs. (13) MURRAY STATE/Ohio Valley

(3) AUBURN/SEC vs. (14) PENN/Ivy League

(6) Miami vs. (11) Providence/Baylor

(7) Texas A&M vs. (10) Louisville

(2) Michigan State vs. (15) BUCKNELL/Patriot League

• -Virginia remains the top overall seed.
• -Louisville is in the final few spots to receive a bid.  The Cardinals are in the mid-30’s in KenPom and even higher on NCAAGameSim.com.  A win in the ACC Tournament should be enough if the bubble doesn’t shrink.
• -Providence and Baylor are among the last 4 teams in the bracket.  Providence opens up with the Big East tourney with Creighton.  That game that could be critical to their tourney chances.  
• -Baylor has lost 3 of 4 and was the last at-large team in the bracket.

MIDWEST

(1) Xavier vs. (16) COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON/Colonial/PRAIRIE VIEW/SWAC

(8) RHODE ISLAND/Atlantic 10 vs. (9) NC State

(5) Ohio State vs. (12) UL LAFAYETTE/Sun Belt

(4) Clemson vs. (13) SOUTH DAKOTA STATE/Summit

(3) Tennessee vs. (14) BUFFALO/Mid-American

(6) Houston vs. (11) USC

(7) Seton Hall vs. (10) FSU

(2) KANSAS/Big 12 vs. (15) RIDER/MAAC

• -Xavier claims the 3rd overall seed but slid to the 4th spot to keep the ACC and Big East from having possible semi-final matchups in the Final Four.
• -NC State is up to a #9 seed although with 2 ACC #1 seeds and multiple #8/#9 ACC teams, it made for some interesting moving parts to avoid a 2nd round match-up of conference teams.
• -Kansas drops to a #2 seed after a brutal 18 point loss to Oklahoma State.

EAST

(1) VILLANOVA/Big East vs. (16) WAGNER/Northeast/BETHUNE-COOKMAN/MEAC

(8) Virginia Tech vs. (9) Kansas State

(5) GONZAGA/WCC vs. (12) LOYOLA-CHICAGO/Missouri Valley

(4) West Virginia vs. (13) NORTHERN KENTUCKY/Horizon

(3) MICHIGAN/Big Ten vs. (14) MONTANA/Big Sky

(6) Florida vs. (11) Texas/UCLA

(7) NEVADA/Mountain West vs. (10) Butler

(2) UNC vs. (15) SFA/Southland

• -Villanova is the 2nd overall seed.
• -Texas is one of the last 4 seeds thanks in large part to a win over West Virginia on Saturday.  
• -The Bruins picked up a big win over USC to keep their hopes alive a bit longer.
• -UNC’s 2 loss week wasn’t enough to drop them off the 2 line, even though the Heels finished as the 6th seed in the ACC tournament.

WEST

(1) Duke vs. (16) RADFORD/Big South

(8) Creighton vs. (9) Saint Mary’s

(5) Kentucky vs. (12) MIDDLE TENNESSEE/Conference USA

(4) Texas Tech vs. (13) VERMONT/America East

(3) CINCINNATI/AAC vs. (14) UNC GREENSBORO/Southern

(6) TCU vs. (11) St. Bonaventure

(7) Arkansas vs. (10) Arizona State

(2) Purdue vs. (15) UC SANTA BARBARA/Big West

• -Duke’s win over UNC was enough to allow them to hop over Kansas to be the 4th overall #1 seed. Perhaps no other team has been given the benefit of the doubt merely based upon the talent on the roster.
• -Middle Tennessee was higher seeded than a few other #11 seeds, but for play-in purposes, they were moved to a #12 seed.

Last Four In

Baylor
UCLA
Providence
Texas

First Four Out

Notre Dame
Alabama
Penn State
Maryland

Next Four Out

Syracuse
LSU
Marquette
Oklahoma State

Multiple Bid Conferences

Here’s where the fun begins and where we set the Sports Channel 8 bracketology apart from everyone else.  You can simulate the bracket above using NCAAGameSim.com.  Enjoy!