Heels at Hokies: what Vegas might tell us


featured photo by Smith Hardy

by Josh Goodson

The Heels visit the Hokies tonight in the TV-contrived Big Monday match-up. UNC is 16-4 overall, 5-2 in ACC play, while the Hokies are 13-6 overall and 2-4 in conference play. It’s not surprising that UNC is favored. What is a bit surprising is some of the recent gambling trends for Tar Heel teams on the road.

Current line: UNC -4.5

The line opened at UNC -5 so the action is trending towards the Hokies. The over/under is 164.5 (roughly 100 more than the average UVa o/u) because both teams can score. But will they score that much? Again, recent trends suggest otherwise……

Notes to consider

-UNC is 15-3 overall against Virginia Tech since the Hokies joined the ACC….BUT just 6-12 ATS in those games
-9 of the last 10 UNC/VT games have gone UNDER (including the last 5!)
-The last 4 UNC games played on the road have gone UNDER
-UNC is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games where they are a favorite by 4-6 pts
Conclusion? Heels will likely win, but history says take Virginia Tech and the 4.5 points, and definitely take the under.