Lots of changes to note in the forecast for Hurricane Florence, but nothing really changes with your preparedness. Here are 8 Things on Hurricane Florence – Wed Update
Moose, what the hell dude?
I know, I know. It’s been a crazy last few days. Here’s an animation of how the NHC forecast track has changed over the last several days.
That’s kind of crazy, right? How over the last few update cycles it’s shifted southward. High pressure that developed is expected to stall the storm near or over the southeastern NC coast before it shoves it southwesterly towards SC.
So, we’re good, right?
Nope.
WHAT DO YOU MEAN NO?
I’m saying you better be happy you bought all the vienna sausage and LaCroix, dude. While the storm may not push into central NC like originally expected, it’s going to dump a ton of rainfall over southeastern and central NC. Several inches over a few days. And when it sits and spins off the coast, you’ll be getting tropical storm-force winds as far west as the Triangle. Couple that with wet soil and you’ve got downed trees and power lines. Not to mention the flooding. So it’s gonna suck hard.
……alright. OK. So we’re only about 24 hours out from this thing. Everything squared away?
Nope.
DAMMIT, MOOSE
Listen, tropical forecasting is tricky. Just like winter weather forecasting is tricky. All forecasting is tricky. Imagine trying to solve a math problem with a hundred different variables. And you get about halfway and someone comes along and changes the equation to something completely different. That’s kind of what it’s like being a meteorologist in these situations. There are a lot of nuances that go into it. So the models are projecting the ridging to be strong enough to stall the storm and move it southwest. What if that ridging doesn’t actually materialize that way? Understand models aren’t real. They just try to solve the equations using our best understanding at the time. That’s why the NHC uses the cone of uncertainty.
OK, fine, well what are the models saying now?
<blank stare>
Well, you asked. When you break down the steering pattern of a storm the way this is shaping up, uncertainty rears its head. So, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Well, whatever. So I imagine we’ll see issues in places other than just NC?
Yep. Definitely brings some problems into play for the SC coast and upstate, as well as heavy rainfall across western NC. Pretty wild to consider you’ll have a hurricane that’ll spend a significant amount of time battering the NC coast and still significantly impact the mountains with flooding. Most of NC will see at least 2″ of rainfall over the next few days. Of course, some will receive significantly more. Areas in eastern SC will up to a foot of rainfall.
Be safe.
