Category Archives: Bowl Projections

ACC, Bowl Projections, College Football

ACC Bowl Selections – Who, When, and Why

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With all of the bowl match-ups announced, here’s a look at where ACC teams are headed, based on the order of their selection, and why the selections played out the way they did.

Orange Bowl

Who: Clemson

When: Thursday, December 31st, 4PM vs. Oklahoma

Why: With a 13-0 record capped off by an ACC Championship Game win over North Carolina, the Tigers were wire-to-wire #1 in the College Football Playoff polls.

Peach Bowl

Who: Florida State

When: Thursday, December 31st, Noon vs. Houston

Why: Despite losing to the Coastal’s last place team in Georgia Tech, a quality schedule and a convincing win over Florida in the season finale pushed the Noles ahead of North Carolina and up to 9th in the CFP Poll. Plus, of course, Florida State remains one of the biggest draws in college football.

Russell Athletic Bowl

Who: North Carolina

When: Tuesday, December 29th, 5:30 vs. vs. Baylor

Why: A historic 11-win season had the Heels on the verge of the New Years Six, and while the committee will tell you about that bad loss to South Carolina or a less-than-difficult non-conference schedule, UNC football is here because they’re UNC football. When the New Years Six has a shot at Notre Dame and Ohio State, they’re going to take it.

Pinstripe Bowl

Who: Duke

When: Saturday, December 26th, 3:30 vs. Indiana

Why: While the Blue Devils aren’t known for packing Wallace Wade Stadium, they’re gaining a reputation for being a program that will pack a bowl game (or more specifically, the club level at bowl games). Especially when that bowl game is in one of Duke’s top alumni hubs like New York or Atlanta, they become a surprisingly attractive draw. Without that buying power, 7-win Duke is in Annapolis or Shreveport.

Music City Bowl

Who: Louisville

When: Wednesday, December 30th, 7PM vs. Texas A&M

Why: Being a successful program with a fairly large fanbase is a solid bargaining chip, but it’s even more powerful when you’re three hours away from a Pool 1 bowl site. Resume wise, Louisville probably should have been picked lower, but you don’t turn down a chance to sell tickets to Louisville fans who will surely drive down for the mid-week game.

Sun Bowl

Who: Miami

When: Saturday, December 26th, 2PM, vs. Washington State

Why: The Sun Bowl is one of the most unique games in college football because they don’t HAVE to sell tickets. El Paso is nearly impossible to get to unless you’re willing to fly elsewhere and rent a car, but the city embraces the game like no other. The concern with Miami, unless they’re in a New Years six game, will always be attendance. Without having that concern, the Sun Bowl will gladly take a well-known program and the TV ratings that will likely follow.

Belk Bowl

Who: NC State

When: Wednesday, December 30th, 3:30 PM vs. Mississippi State

Why: It’s no secret that the Belk Bowl wanted Virginia Tech in Frank Beamer’s last game. The only problem … a guideline that’s not even listed in the pre-season guide that prohibits a bowl from passing over an 8 win team for a 6 win team. Because the Pinstripe Bowl and Music City Bowl picked two 7-win teams, the Belk Bowl was left with two choices … NC State or Pitt. At 3:30 on a Wednesday, the in-state school is the obvious choice unless there’s a program out there that’s just too high-profile not to take. Pitt has one of the best histories in the ACC, but Pitt is not on that “can’t pass” level.

Independence Bowl

Who: Virginia Tech

When: Saturday, December 26th, 5:45 PM vs. Tulsa

Why: As covered above, Virginia Tech was locked into the next tier of bowls, and essentially had their choice between Annapolis and Shreveport. As David Teel from the Daily Press outlined, Frank Beamer’s sense of nostalgia drove him towards the Independence Bowl, the home of his first bowl game as the Hokies’ head coach.

Military Bowl

Who: Pitt

When: Monday, December 28th, 2:30 PM vs. Navy

Why: Pitt is here because they weren’t a take for the Pinstripe, Sun, or Music City Bowls, and the Belk Bowl preferred the in-state team with a large, local fan base. With an impressive 8-4 record, it’s understandable that Pitt fans are upset about being passed over, but such is life as a program without a large following or a particularly compelling reason to select them. It’s an even more bitter pill to swallow when a win, which would have been their 9th, in that final game versus Miami would have locked them into a Pool 1 bowl.

Bowl Projections

ACC Bowl Selection Mythbusters

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With all of the focus being on the selection of the top four for the College Football Playoff (as it should be), there’s a lot of misunderstanding and misinformation regarding the selection of the other hundreds of thousands of bowls out there*.

* do not ever complain about having more college football to watch on TV

Myth: The College Football Playoff committee ranks teams by evaluating and comparing resumes, and those rankings determine the selection for the New Years Six bowls.

myth-busted 

Beyond the top four spots, the CFP poll DOES determine who gets slotted into the at-large New Years Six spots and who gets the top Group of 5 spot. That part is true. However, the bowls are very much involved in manipulating the rankings in a way that gives them the power to pick and choose teams as their guests. As we saw last year, teams will be ranked one way this week to give the impression of an honest comparison of teams, but will mysteriously move next week without having played a game. The frightening possibility for UNC fans is that we ASSUME this only happens outside of the top four, but we have no idea. “Eye Test” is a dangerous, dangerous phrase.

Myth: The Russell Athletic Bowl and the Pool 1 Bowls (Belk, Music City, Pinstripe, Sun, TaxSlayer) pick teams based on comparing the resumes of eligible teams. 

myth-busted

The only “resume” rule at play is that bowls can’t pass up one team in favor of another if there’s a two-game difference in record. For example, 6-6 Virginia Tech is eliminated from Russell Athletic Bowl consideration because they can’t be picked over Florida State, UNC, Pitt, or Louisville. Beyond that, it’s up to the wishes of the bowls as we’ll see when those 6-6 Hokies are picked over a 7-win Duke team who beat Virginia Tech. Resumes don’t matter in bowl selection at this tier.

Myth: Bowls pick teams based on ticket sales and prestige.

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There’s certainly plenty of evidence to suggest that this is true, but two factors absolutely keep this from being confirmed: the politics at play behind the scenes, and the massive importance of TV ratings.

A good example is the 2013 Chick-Fil-A Bowl where the selection came down to 10-3 Duke vs. 9-3 Miami as the ACC representative in the prestigious bowl. There’s no doubt which program carried more prestige, but a resurgent Duke brought more intrigue than Miami to a bowl that needs no help with ticket sales or TV ratings, especially going up against Johnny Football. The bowl passed on Miami and received one of the most memorable bowl games in recent years, and ended up as the most-watched non-BCS bowl that year.

Still, sales and prestige are incredibly important to bowls, and we fully expect that to play out with the Virginia Tech Hokies this years. With Frank Beamer’s final game there for the taking, the Hokies are probably the only guaranteed non CFP sellout this bowl season.

Myth: There’s a pecking order among the Pool 1 Bowls.

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The four Pool 1 bowls are all “even”, and each will throw out the ACC team they’d like to host. If there’s no conflict, it’s set. Those are the four teams in those four bowls. However, if there is a conflict, there’s a tie-breaking procedure which could likely include a draw or some sort of rotating “waiver wire” type pecking order. Just because it’s not made public doesn’t mean it’s not there, but it only comes into play when multiple bowls want the same team.

Myth: Ultimately, bowl selection comes down to how many tweets fans send to football media or directly to the official bowl accounts in order to lobby for their favorite teams.

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Now that you understand how all of this works, check out our next-to-last edition of our ACC Bowl Projections.

 

 

 

Bowl Projections, College Football

ACC Bowl Projections -Week 13

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Clemson

The Tigers will be in the College Football Playoff with a win against UNC, and will likely head to the Peach Bowl or Fiesta Bowl with a loss in Charlotte next Saturday. That destination will be determined by North Carolina’s ranking. If the Tar Heels make the playoff, Clemson will play in Atlanta. If they don’t, the Tigers head to the Fiesta.

Projection: College Football Playoff

North Carolina

A win versus Clemson gives the committee an interesting debate. Oklahoma is a lock for the top 4, as is the winner of the Big Ten championship game. Stanford will climb in the polls this week after beating Notre Dame, and would be difficult to beat out should the Cardinal win the PAC 12 championship game. With a loss, an at-large bid in the New Years Six is an even longer shot as North Carolina will be behind Florida State in the pecking order. A worst-case scenario would be a loss to Clemson with Notre Dame dropping from the New Years Six, in which case the Heels would drop to a bowl like the TaxSlayer or Belk.

Projection: Russell Athletic Bowl

Florida State

FSU’s a lock for the Peach Bowl unless UNC beats Clemson. If the Heels win, they’re a lock for the Russell Athletic.

Projection: Peach Bowl

Pitt

The loss to Miami became meaningless when Virginia Tech beat Virginia. Because all signs point to the Hokies as a Pool 1 bowl selection, 8-win teams can’t drop out of the Pool 1 bowls.

Projection: Pinstripe Bowl

Louisville

A comeback win against hapless Kentucky may have saved the Cardinals from a lower tier bowl, but they’ll have to sweat out bowl selection after a very disappointing season.

Projection: Sun Bowl

Miami

Likewise with Pitt, if the Hokies are selected for the Belk Bowl, the Hurricanes can’t drop out of the Pool 1 bowls. Being gifted a win by ACC officials ended up being a big deal after all.

Projection: TaxSlayer Bowl

Virginia Tech

The Hokies aren’t a great football team, but the Frank Beamer story will earn Virginia Tech a bowl bump.

Projection: Belk Bowl

Duke

The “loss” against Miami will end up costing Duke after all, but the way in which the team reacted to the “loss” is the bigger culprit. Duke’s still in the running for the Pinstripe Bowl, but Kevin White will have some work to do on that sales pitch to have Duke ahead of Louisville.

Projection: Military Bowl

NC State

The local media will spend a few weeks clowning Shreveport, but with the new bowl tie-ins and a game against the SEC, it’s not the embarrassment it was when UNC played in front of dozens of fans under Everett Withers. NC State could have back-doored their way into Charlotte if Virginia Tech had lost.

Projection: Independence Bowl

 

ACC, Bowl Projections, College Football, Thanksgiving

WHAT WE’RE THANKFUL FOR #2: THE BELK BOWL

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FINAL belk bowl

There’s not a day that goes by when we don’t wake up being thankful for being a sports fan in North Carolina. This November, the SportsChannel8 team and a panel of peers from NC media will be counting down to Thanksgiving with the top 25 things we have to be thankful for in this great state.

Today friend of the network, CBS Sports.com College Football/Basketball scribe,  and native North Carolinian Chip Patterson weighs in on why we love the Belk Bowl.

The Belk Bowl isn’t just a reason to be thankful for sports here in North Carolina, it’s an indication of how far we’ve come and where we’re going.

Technically, the Belk Bowl has been in existence in 2002 thanks to Raycom-powered efforts to bring a bowl game to the state of North Carolina and scout potential targets for conference realignment for the ACC. League officials and bowl organizers will argue that last point (because I made it up), but note that Boston College, Pittsburgh and Louisville (who has played the game as a Big East and ACC member) all joined the ACC after playing in this bowl game.

In terms of events around the game, the Belk Bowl (and most of its previous iterations) did a great job recognizing its surroundings in NASCAR country and the opportunity to offer a unique experience to the players. Some of our the game’s largest and fastest young men squeeze into stock cars and get to feel even larger and faster while going hundreds of miles per hour at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

The inclusion of area schools has made it easy for North Carolinians to develop an early fondness for the Belk Bowl. All of the Big Four have made at least one appearance and sources have told SportsChannel 8 that, historically speaking, a North Carolina school is involved 61.5 percent of the time. But these days the Belk Bowl has more of a national draw than those early Continental Tire Bowls.
Both the ACC and SEC had to give up the Peach Bowl in the creation of the College Football Playoff, and that’s when our khaki-clad heroes pounced at the opportunity. No longer just a meeting between local ACC schools and a Big East visitor, the Belk Bowl is an established battle ground (at least until 2019) for the never-ending ACC-SEC turf war in the southeast.

Keeping an eye on the future is what allowed the Belk Bowl to emerge from the local spotlight and into the national spotlight, even getting to add an opening weekend kickoff game. That foresight has been evident with the game’s moves in the business of the college football and in the super serious business of bowl game Twitter accounts.

No bowl game brings the heat 140 characters at a time like the Belk Bowl. No one.

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I could reach back for months into @belkbowl’s greatest hits but when you are following the game’s lead to live with a certain modern and southern style you have to continue reinventing yourself, and @belkbowl brings that energy with every new message dropped into your timeline. Or better yet, interact with the Belk Bowl. Chances are you’ll get a great response that will brighten your day.

What was an upstart Big East-ACC bowl game is now an annual ACC-SEC battle ground and the good folks at the Charlotte Sports Foundation (who also oversee the ACC Championship Game) have recently entered the hustle of bidding for title games. Like North Carolina, the Belk Bowl has gown a lot in the last 13 years.

It’s Modern. Southern. Football. And we are so thankful that it’s right here in the state of North Carolina.

Bowl Projections, College Football

What does the new CFP poll mean for the ACC?

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Talk about bad timing for the best season in UNC football history.

As discussed yesterday, there are three at-large spots up for grabs in the New Years Six, and the new College Football Poll may have completely eliminated the ACC from snagging one. With four teams in the top 10, the Big Ten will absolutely take one at-large bid with the champion essentially locked into the Playoff while the runner up is guaranteed a spot in the Rose Bowl. Notre Dame dropped to sixth without much of an opportunity to climb back into the top 4, locking up an at-large bid for the Irish.

The third and final at-large bid, at the moment, is held by the Big 12. The good news for everyone else is that they’re perfectly poised to cannibalize each other over the next two weeks. Oklahoma sits third in the rankings, and plays 11th ranked Oklahoma State on Saturday night with an opportunity to knock the Cowboys out of the New Years Six picture. It gets dicey if the Cowboys win, however, because it likely kicks the Big 12 out of the Playoff, locking up the third and final at-large bid with Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Baylor all poised for a top 10 finish.

Unlike the PAC 12, with absolutely no shot at an at-large bid, the ACC has two teams ready to pounce should Oklahoma take care of business. Florida State has 12th ranked Florida, who dropped four spots after an overtime scare during the “SEC Bye Week” last weekend. North Carolina plays NC State before heading to the ACC Championship Game to face top ranked Clemson.

So why is this bad timing for the Heels? Well, the most obvious reason is that the ACC lacks an automatic Orange Bowl bid this year, as the league’s access bowl is a semifinal host. Any other season and the next highest ranked ACC team behind Clemson would be slotted into the New Years Six by contract.

Carolina is also being set up by the committee, who no doubt is being told that the bowls are taking a hard pass on North Carolina. With Florida dropping four spots (completely ignoring that the committee hasn’t punished anyone for “close wins” until this week when both Notre Dame and Florida were hit), the Gators can give Florida State enough of a quality win to stay ahead of the Tar Heels, but probably not enough of a quality win to overtake the 3rd place Big 12 or Big Ten team. It gives the Noles a chance, but it doesn’t do North Carolina any favors, who will now have to beat Clemson to claim an automatic bid rather than an at-large spot. Should Florida State lose, UNC will have to jump programs like Michigan, Ohio State or Oklahoma State to grab a bid.

What’s even more unfortunate is the “worst case scenario” that looms out there for North Carolina. If the Big Ten, Big 12, and Notre Dame scoop up the three at-large bids, if Florida State beats Florida, and if Clemson wins the ACC Championship over North Carolina, who is the Russell Athletic Bowl taking?

Go Sooners.

Bowl Projections

CFP Playoff – Clemson

Peach Bowl – Florida State

Russell Athletic Bowl – North Carolina

Sun Bowl – Pitt

Belk Bowl – Virginia Tech

TaxSlayer Bowl – NC State

Pinstripe Bowl – Duke

Military Bowl – Miami

Independence Bowl – Louisville

Quick Lane Bowl – Virginia* (if 80 teams are not bowl eligible)

Bowl Projections, College Football

What will UNC be ranked in the new College Football Poll

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After thinking the Tar Heels would be ranked much higher when the first College Football Poll was released, we’ve nailed North Carolina’s rank each following week by doing one simple task … counting the teams ahead of them and seeing if those teams won or lost. It’s completely understandable to break down strength of schedule, margin of victory, comparison between opponents’ opponents, etc., but there’s one simple truth that we’ve come to learn about the Playoff rankings:

Resume comparison actually takes place for the top 5 or 6 teams, but beyond that, it’s a win-and-move-up-lose-and-move-down world, with the final say given to the bowls completely based on ticket sales and TV ratings.

So with all due respect to the fans and writers who have spent extensive time and effort crunching numbers, here’s our lazy guess that’s been right on the money so far.

There were 16 teams ranked ahead of North Carolina last Tuesday night. Of those 16, LSU, Utah, Oklahoma State, and Ohio State lost. That puts UNC’s ceiling at #13. Both Oklahoma State and Ohio State had “good losses”, which is reason to believe they’ll be ranked ahead of North Carolina. We project the Tar Heels to move up two spots to 15th, with the potential of Ole Miss leap-frogging the Heels with their win over LSU (which we don’t expect to happen because that, even by the committee’s standards, would be embarrassing).

What does that mean for New Years Six hopes for the Tar Heels? It’s not great, barring a win versus Clemson in the ACC Championship Game that would guarantee a spot in the Peach Bowl.

Per the ACC’s Associate Commissioner Mike Finn, here’s how the hopes for a spot in one of the four non-Playoff New Years Six plays out for this season:

  • There are 8 non-Playoff spots in the New Years Six
  • The Rose Bowl is guaranteed to be Big Ten vs. Pac 12
  • The Sugar Bowl is guaranteed to be SEC vs. Big 12
  • The Fiesta Bowl will have a “Group of 5” team
  • This leaves three “at-large” spots from the top 12
  • The 5th, 6th, and 7th ranked teams are guaranteed a spot if not already included in the guaranteed Group of 5 or non-ACC Power 5 spots.

So North Carolina, and Florida State for that matter, are fighting for a spot in the top 12, and once there, are fighting for position as at-large bids. Here are the teams they’re fighting against:

Big Ten

The Big Ten is in serious danger of not getting their conference champion into the College Football Playoff if Iowa doesn’t win the Big Ten title game. If the conference champion plays in the Rose Bowl, the Big Ten could easily scoop up two of the three at-large bids available by either being ranked 5th through 7th, or just by being more attractive of a bowl guest than UNC.

SEC

Only Alabama and Florida are really threatening to take New Years Six spots, and the conference champion will almost assuredly be in the College Football Playoff, meaning the runner-up will be in the guaranteed Sugar Bowl spot. There’s not much of a threat here unless Ole Miss ends up winning the SEC West. Definitely keep an eye on Ole Miss’ rank tonight  because if they do jump UNC, the SEC fix is in and there’s nothing that can be done to stop it.

PAC 12

The only way the PAC 12 takes an at-large bid is if Stanford doesn’t win the conference championship game, and even then, they may not be ranked in the top 12 to be eligible for a bid.

Big 12

Here’s where it gets scary for the ACC. Last week, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Baylor were all ranked in the top 10. The conference champion SHOULD play in the playoff, but when the rankings come out tonight, it’s doubtful that any will be in the top 4. Even if the top of this group makes the Playoff, the third place team will be in the top 12, likely taking that final at-large bid.

Independents

Notre Dame is a major factor as a loss against Stanford or a committee decision to exclude the one-loss Irish would guarantee them an at-large bid.

Group of 5

No threat for an at-large bid.